When it comes to assessing global trends in prostate cancer, two metrics are the most telling: incidence rates and mortality rates. Incidence means the number of cases that occur in any given year, and mortality means the number of deaths due specifically to prostate cancer (prostate cancer-specific mortality or PCSM).

Prostate cancer on Planet Earth

To understand the burden of prostate cancer in our world, it’s important to get the big population picture. According to Our World in Data, the number of people on the planet has increased rapidly over the last few centuries. “In 1800, there were one billion people. Today there are more than 8 billion of us.” In the last 75 years alone, it more than tripled—but the speed of such growth is expected to slow.

The total number is expected to increase to over 10 billion by the mid-2080s, and then decline slightly. Reasons for a swelling population include longer lifespans thanks to better food supply, medical care and public health. This also means the proportion of people ages 65 and up will possibly double.

In turn, this means a growing number of prostate cancer cases, since aging is the risk factor most associated with prostate cancer. Therefore, Schafer et al. tell us that by 2040 the burden of prostate cancer will have increased to approximately 2.4 million cases.^[i] However, when we ask “How many cases occur per 100,000 men?” incidence rates vary by region.

Incidence on the rise

According to the Schafer paper, when looking at each country on a case-by-case basis, “rates per 100 000 men varied approximately 22-fold across countries, from 7.6 in Thailand to 168.0 in Martinique.” Thus, it’s hard to generalize global incidence rates. Also, incidence rates may be tied to screening. In higher income countries like the U.S., Canada and Western Europe, incidence rises when PSA-based screening is more utilized, and falls when testing decreases.^[ii] Still, incidence is rising.

Mortality expected to increase

An April 2024 article from Forbes sounds pessimistic. Despite variance among developed and underdeveloped regions, prostate cancer mortality is also generally expected to increase:

… researchers estimate deaths due to the disease will rise to almost 700,000 per year in 2040, up from the 375,000 in 2020. While prostate cancer deaths have declined in most high-income countries over the last 30 years, mortality rates and the number of cases continue to rise in low- and middle-income countries, particularly those without access to early blood detection screening called PSA testing.^[iii]

Better news ahead

On the other hand, analysts at Yale University are more optimistic, with news of better days to come. They dispute that current projections tell the whole story. Dr. Nicholas Brutus of Yale School of Medicine points out that the data “failed to account for the granularity of the increases in technology specifically geared toward prostate cancer screening and detection.” Instead, he says that prostate cancer mortality will diminish despite an increase in incidence.

In March, 2026 Dr. Brutus and his team announced their prediction that prostate cancer deaths would decrease.^[iv] There are several factors at play:

• There is more awareness of prostate cancer, and more permission for men to dialogue with their doctors and each other about screening and early detection, thanks to social media.
• Rapid PSA test kits have been developed, making PSA screening more accessible.
• Multiparametric MRI is now incorporated as a standard follow-up to a suspicious PSA
• The use of PI-RADS improves accurate detection and rules out men without prostate cancer.

Dr. Brutus states, “We argue strongly that the main way mortality will decrease is through increased accessibility and screening, so these advances are promising.” He also cites more refined risk stratifiers for matching appropriate treatments.

He is enthusiastic about focal therapy. “More exciting is the emergence of focal treatments that focus on the improvement of the quality of life of patients with clinically significant prostate cancer that require surgical intervention. By focusing on specific diseased tissues, focal therapy reduces the collateral damage on sexual and urinary function.”

At the Sperling Prostate Center, we agree there is reason to hope that clinicians, scientists and patients working together can stem the tide of prostate cancer mortality. In fact, we believe that there will one day be a future without prostate cancer, or any cancer. Until that day, if you or a loved one is found to have a suspicious PSA result, contact us to find out how we can help with next steps.

NOTE: This content is solely for purposes of information and does not substitute for diagnostic or medical advice. Talk to your doctor if you are experiencing pelvic pain, or have any other health concerns or questions of a personal medical nature.

References

[i] Schafer EJ, Laversanne M, Sung H, Soerjomataram I et al. Recent Patterns and Trends in Global Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality: An Update. Eur Urol. 2025 Mar;87(3):302-313.
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Roeloff, Mary Whitfill. “Worldwide Prostate Cancer Cases Will Double By 2040, New Study Predicts—Here’s Why.” Forbes, Apr. 4, 2025. https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/04/04/worldwide-prostate-cancer-cases-will-double-by-2040-new-study-predicts-heres-why/
[iv] Backman, Isabella. “Prostate Cancer Deaths to Decrease, Yale Researchers Predict.” YSM Insight. March 9, 2026. https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/prostate-cancer-deaths-to-decrease-yale-researchers-predict/